Robust Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects modeling of time to positivity in tuberculosis trials

Early phase 2 tuberculosis (TB) trials are conducted to characterize the early bactericidal activity (EBA) of anti‐TB drugs. The EBA of anti‐TB drugs has conventionally been calculated as the rate of decline in colony forming unit (CFU) count during the first 14 days of treatment. The measurement of CFU count, however, is expensive and prone to contamination. Alternatively to CFU count, time to positivity (TTP), which is a potential biomarker for long‐term efficacy of anti‐TB drugs, can be used to characterize EBA. The current Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects (NLME) regression model for TTP data, however, lacks robustness to gross outliers that often are present in the data. The conventional way of handling such outliers involves their identification by visual inspection and subsequent exclusion from the analysis. However, this process can be questioned because of its subjective nature. For this reason, we fitted robust versions of the Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects regression model to a wide range of TTP datasets. The performance of the explored models was assessed through model comparison statistics and a simulation study. We conclude that fitting a robust model to TTP data obviates the need for explicit identification and subsequent “deletion” of outliers but ensures that gross outliers exert no undue influence on model fits. We recommend that the current practice of fitting conventional normal theory models be abandoned in favor of fitting robust models to TTP data.     

系统科学视角下的王夫之《周易外传·系辞传》解读

从科学"猜测"角度寻找中国传统文化与西方科学的结合点。王夫之在《周易外传·系辞传》中提出了一系列与现代系统科学相呼应的观点。基于"乾坤并建"为《周易》象数系统注入显隐相涵的认知逻辑,使系统运动的一般性和特殊性在认识上辩证统一,其中包含着与"整体涌现性"相关的系统层次内涵。"天地缊,万物化醇"引出系统自组织机制,不仅与"霍兰命题"异曲同工,还与协同学的"对称破缺""序参数""支配原理"等概念和原理相通。结合短期和长期两种视角,从"动"与"生"引申出有关系统演化的观点,呼应了系统科学中的"反馈""自然选择"等思想。总体而言,王夫之的易学思想可能有助于建立一种对开放复杂巨系统研究具有启示意义的阴阳二元趋势的多层叠加分析框架。     

信息技术对审计的影响研究

随着信息技术在社会经济生活中的全方位渗透,适用于传统经济环境的审计理论、方法与技术需要变革以适应现代组织的各类日常运营和活动,通过调研信息技术在审计中的具体应用,从12个方面对信息技术进步与审计发展面临的问题和趋势进行系统性研究。研究认为,信息技术促使审计职能从审计为主变为审计与管控并重,审计范围从经济安全变为经济与信息安全并重,审计内容从财务为主变为财务与业务并重,审计对象从账本变为数据库,审计模式从事后变为事前事中事后全包含,审计方式从现场勘察为主变为远程分析为主,审计介质从纸质变为电子,审计证据从有形变为无形,数据来源从抽样变为全样本,测试内容从人工系统变为信息系统,工作形式从审计合作变为审计协同,风险计算从依赖审计人员经验变为依据系统模型,这些变革极大地推进了审计向现代化方向发展。     

古代突厥文碑铭的发现和解读--纪念汤木森解读古代突厥文一百一十年

文章概述了突厥汗国的发展变化历程和古代突厥文碑铭的发现及研究情况 ,以纪念丹麦科学家魏·汤木森成功解读古代突厥文 1 1 0年 ,并反思了中国在此领域的研究状况。     

Trends in Mortality Decrease and Economic Growth

The vast literature on extrapolative stochastic mortality models focuses mainly on the extrapolation of past mortality trends and summarizes the trends by one or more latent factors. However, the interpretation of these trends is typically not very clear. On the other hand, explanation methods are trying to link mortality dynamics with observable factors. This serves as an intermediate step between the two methods. We perform a comprehensive analysis on the relationship between the latent trend in mortality dynamics and the trend in economic growth represented by gross domestic product (GDP). Subsequently, the Lee-Carter framework is extended through the introduction of GDP as an additional factor next to the latent factor, which provides a better fit and better interpretable forecasts.     

沈国舫生态保护和建设学术思想研究

我国社会经济发展进入新时代,生态环境问题越来越得到社会各界广泛关注,对生态保护和建设的系统研究也逐步加强.沈国舫先生是中国工程院院士、原副院长,长期在林业、生态、环境领域开展理论研究和政策咨询,在生态保护和建设方面进行了较为系统的研究和论述.他认为生态保护和建设应以人与自然和谐发展为基础,应从客观发展规律和我国本土特色出发,提出生态保护和建设的综合措施,对自然生态系统和人工生态系统分类施策.这为我国生态和环境领域的重大政策制定、重大工程实施和国际交流合作提供了决策支撑,为我国生态保护和建设事业贡献了具有针对性的、值得借鉴的新的理论和方法.     

耿孟刚作品欣赏

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DECISION TIME,CONSIDERATION TIME,AND STATUS QUO BIAS

Economists increasingly appreciate the value of studying the time taken to make decisions in order to provide insights into decision makers' choices. This article shows that studying how time is allocated among individual options is also valuable in helping researchers to understand the impact default options have on decision makers' attention allocation, as approximated by how the time is allocated. The study of this impact generates new insights into the well‐known choice phenomenon of status quo bias, which typically refers to decision makers' tendency to stick to a default option. By designing a series of novel experiments, I find that this bias arises even when the choice is among prizes of fixed monetary value expressed in arithmetic form. I also find asymmetric attention (i.e., more time devoted to default options) and strikingly asymmetric choice errors; specifically, decision makers fail to select an alternative better than the default 28% of the time, while they incorrectly select an alternative worse than the default only 11% of the time; and provide evidence supporting a causal relationship between asymmetric attention and asymmetric errors. (JEL D03, D12, D83)     

社会学民族志的力量:重返早期社会研究的田野工作

自20世纪70年代以来，社会学民族志在田野工作和叙事复兴中与传统人文学汇聚，显著扩展了自己的学科边界。但是，这种扩展并没有解决社会学民族志在深度的经验发生和强烈的理论诉求之间遭遇的紧张。对于这种紧张，本文主张再访早期社会研究的田野，即19世纪末期到一战之前的若干典型研究，从中反思早期社会学田野工作是如何在“直接经验”的倾向中完成类型化，以及如何在这个经验感获得的同时改变对社会世界的道德想象。早期社会学的田野工作的力量之一不在于以规范的诉求压制经验感，而是以独特的情感结构连接经验的观察和道德理想的重生。由此，我们不仅需要反思诸如社会调查到社区研究这样的简单思路，更要重新理解理论史上所谓的“进步主义式”的道德本身。这一工作对重新认识早期社会研究和今天的社会学民族志都具有意义上的准备。